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Offline awjdthumper

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #20 on: November 16, 2020, 08:39:43 AM »
*Originally Posted by applecorp [+]
Oh dear, the NHS are not under stress at all, hospitals are not full of Covid patients and all those temporary test sites are empty, go to one and all you will see is just hi-viz wearing Serco staff (research Serco) wandering around doing nothing.

If you all want to continue to be afraid to go out because of a virus that has a 'supposed' mortality rate of 0.5%, compared to Influenza (which is 0.1%) then crack on, enjoy being locked up.
This second wave of the pandemic is almost certainly due to people not following the rules needed to prevent new infections - in large, this is probably due to complacency but is also due to a minority who simply flout the rules thinking that Covid-19 is not a serious illness. This might well be true for them but may not be the case for people they infect. I am probably in the more vulnerable category by virtue of my age and, although I am not afraid to go out, I certainly go out of my way to avoid people who are not keeping to the rules.
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Online KildareMan

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #21 on: November 16, 2020, 09:17:40 AM »
*Originally Posted by applecorp [+]
Oh dear, the NHS are not under stress at all, hospitals are not full of Covid patients and all those temporary test sites are empty, go to one and all you will see is just hi-viz wearing Serco staff (research Serco) wandering around doing nothing.

If you all want to continue to be afraid to go out because of a virus that has a 'supposed' mortality rate of 0.5%, compared to Influenza (which is 0.1%) then crack on, enjoy being locked up.

Best get your tin foil hat out then.
Off you go out and be a numpty then.

51934 (as of 16-11-20) of your fellow countrymen would certainly disagree.
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Online Paulhere

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #22 on: November 16, 2020, 09:45:53 AM »
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Offline D6864

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #23 on: November 16, 2020, 09:53:46 AM »
*Originally Posted by applecorp [+]
... 'supposed' mortality rate of 0.5% ...

Would you eat a smartie from a bowl of 200 if you knew one of them was poisoned?

Offline Admin

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #24 on: November 16, 2020, 12:54:12 PM »
+1

Also, I'm not quite sure why some people only quote fatality rates as if that's the only problem. The long term side effects can be extremely debilitating. It's now looking like 20% of those infected are later experiencing some sort of mental health issue, even if they had a mild illness.

A friend of ours, who's in her early thirties and is a tri-athlete, caught covid earlier in the year. From a fitness point of view she was as fit as it gets. Her illness was relatively mild and she never went to hospital. However, since then she's not worked nor has she done any training as she now suffers from fatigue and can hardly do anything. Trouble is she caught it 8 months ago and still not getting better.

So this assumption of "I'm young, or I'll get a mild illness" is just hope, denial, or stupidity. Fact is no one knows how it would affect you should you be unfortunate to catch the virus. Would not surprise me if we see many relatively young people who catch the virus dying prematurely in 20 years time from the long effects/damage.
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Offline Thripster

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #25 on: November 16, 2020, 01:08:33 PM »
This was posted by me in another place on 9th November - but the percentages still apply (roughly). Some perspective needed here. The death rate is very little over that expected. The only purpose of the lock down is to manage the expected influx through the hospitals. Quite rightly so, as it is a horrible disease to have and a horrible disease to treat. Other than that, it largely affects the elderly with other serious illnesses.


First case in UK reported on 31st January 2020. Normally (without Covid), you'd expect to see something like 1660 deaths per day (UK) from all causes. Therefore, in that period (281 days) you'd expect to see 466460 deaths. We have seen 49,134 deaths in the same period where the patient has died with Covid-19 (not necessarily of Covid-19). So, if all 49,134 deaths were attributed to Covid, an increase over the normal expected deaths of about 10%. The average age of Covid related deaths is 81 years of age (needs checking). Given that we know, from the government and anecdotally, that the majority of the deaths of people with Covid are with people who have other, serious health issues and, in the same way that deaths due to flu precipitate earlier death for those that are vulnerable, so it must be with Covid-19.


Globally - 50,395,174 cases - 1,256,177 deaths. % cases of population (7.8 billion)=0.64%
% deaths of population =0.016%
% deaths of cases =2.49%

US - 9,968,015 cases - 237,568 deaths % cases of population (331M) =3.01%
% deaths of population =0.071%
% deaths of cases =2.38%

UK - 1,195,350 cases - 49,134 deaths % cases of population (67.89M) =1.76%
% deaths of population =0.072%
% deaths of cases =4.10%



Spanish Flu

World population - 1.8 billion
Deaths (estimated between 20 million and 100 million)

% deaths of population (using 20 million figure): 1.1%
% deaths of population (using 100M) : 5.5%


World War 1 - Number of deaths (globally) - 22 million

World War 2 - Number of deaths (globally) - 75 to 85 million




You can draw your own conclusions.

Sources: Population figures: Wikipedia
Cases and deaths: John Hopkins and ONS
Percentages : Me (so please check)
« Last Edit: November 16, 2020, 01:10:32 PM by Thripster »

Online Paulhere

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #26 on: November 16, 2020, 01:47:15 PM »
*Originally Posted by Pockets [+]
Hi, Can anyone confirm weather bikes are allowed out for pleasure riding?

We seem to have drifted way off topic here.  :192:

Alone or with one chum, taking a ride is allowed according to COMO. If they got it wrong, a governing body would have told us.
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Offline Fazer

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #27 on: November 16, 2020, 01:48:37 PM »
*Originally Posted by Paulhere [+]
We seem to have drifted way off topic here.  :192:

Alone or with one chum, taking a ride is allowed according to COMO. If they got it wrong, a governing body would have told us.

 :0461:

Offline Thripster

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #28 on: November 16, 2020, 01:52:45 PM »
Sorry, consider it drifted back on.

Online Paulhere

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Re: Lockdown
« Reply #29 on: November 16, 2020, 01:57:39 PM »
*Originally Posted by Thripster [+]
Sorry, consider it drifted back on.

Not just you m8, it went off topic half way through the last page.
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